Falling U.S. Oil Imports Will Reshape the World Crude Market

From Bloomberg Businessweek :

By 2014, the U.S. will import just 6 million barrels of crude oil per day, or roughly a third of what it uses, according to a recent forecast from the federal Energy Information Administration. That’s less than half the amount of 2006, when imports accounted for 60 percent of total U.S. oil consumption.

Imports from Africa, mainly from OPEC’s biggest West African members, Nigeria and Angola - will have to find another home, more than likely India, China, Europe, and Korea. Displacing them from the U.S. market will probably lower prices overall as producers see greater market competition. Edward Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets, and a noted oil forecaster, believes that $90 will be the new ceiling for oil prices, rather than the floor it’s been in recent years, a transition he anticipates will be “highly disruptive.”

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